VALUING A PHUKET PROPERTY

When a seller advertises a property in Phuket, the price is their notion of the home’s worth, but the only true valuation comes when they find a buyer who agrees with them. Value is therefore far more subjective than price.

If no one is willing to pay the price being asked, the property is being over-valued. That is not to say it wasn’t worth that price 6 months earlier, or that it won’t be worth that much again one day, but in the here and now, that is not the value.

Buyers make the property market in any market. The value is only what a given buyer is willing to pay, and property prices may keep going up until no buyer can be found. This is essentially how a property bubble forms and ends, and it happens in almost every country. The dynamics are slightly different in Phuket.

The following offers an idea of how buyers (and sellers) in Phuket arrive at their notions of what a property is worth.

Beauty Is In The Eye Of The Beholder

This sentiment is especially applicable to property in Phuket.

Someone relatively new to Phuket may have a perception of a property’s value based on what an equivalent property costs at home, or in other holiday destinations they have visited. Their judgment may also be clouded by excitement, anxiety, trepidation – or any cocktail of emotions which can prevent them from making a sound, objective assessment.

In most countries, a condo/apartment or a pool villa can be fairly valued by an assessor, and the price will be based predominantly on comparable houses in the area. In Phuket, however, people tend to pay what they think something is worth.

Motivated or Unmotivated Sellers

In the past, distortions crept into the market when existing long-time owners (most of them not really motivated sellers) decided to “test the market” by placing their Phuket properties up for sale at ridiculously high asking prices. This created artificially inflated prices on other nearby properties.

Given the number and variety of both villas and condos now on offer in Phuket, very few people profit from this strategy today. But some do, which can affect the asking prices of surrounding properties. In fact, there are quite a few examples of individuals overpaying for Phuket land, properties and businesses.

Relative Value of Property in Phuket

Simply put, “relative value” can be defined as the method for determining an assets value, by using similar assets for comparison purposes at a particular point in time. We are not referring to Phuket property comparisons here, but rather the value of property here, in relation to the value of property right now in the home countries of prospective buyers arriving in Phuket.

The low interest rate environment we experienced since the 2008 credit crunch, has led to many overinflated real estate sectors around the world. Many buyers arriving in Phuket, therefore, can still see a beautiful tropical island full of bargains.

Paying a Premium for the Phuket Dream

Overseas buyers are sometimes willing to pay a slight premium for “the dream”. While they could have saved money with a little a more searching or negotiating, it is not always easy to place a price tag on a dream. For anyone living in a cold climate with dark winters, who has a stressful job and spends most of their day sitting in traffic, Phuket is paradise. Owning a property in Phuket could very well be about filling a void in their lives.

Buying Real Estate in Phuket is About Personal Appeal

Just as no two people are the same, there is also no such thing as universal appeal. What makes a given property anywhere on the island more desirable to one prospective buyer may be a turn-off for another.

Someone may be attracted to Phuket for its greenery, and actively seek out peace and solitude. That person would likely be put off by crowds, shops and nightlife (which could be the main attraction for someone else).

People with children generally want to be in the proximity of an international school. This can override all other considerations when choosing a home.

The diversity of people moving and buying in Phuket has been expanding for years now. A significant proportion of the world’s nationalities are now here living on the island, and quite a few of these are married to Thai nationals. Such a mix of people means a broad range of tastes, likes and dislikes.

The average age of expatriates has changed too. Twenty years ago, most expatriates on the island were of a mature age, either retirees or professionals working in the region. But since the rise of the “digital nomad”, we have also seen younger residents moving to the island. Over the last 5 years, the average age of expatriates, therefore, has significantly lowered.

North, South, East or West

The residents of the specific geographical locations where foreigners buy property on Phuket can be as different from one another as the regions themselves.

The distance to the airport matters to someone who is commuting to work in Bangkok, Hong Kong or Singapore. Spending only two days each week with their families, they don’t want to spend extras hours on Fridays and Sundays in the car. These individuals tend to prefer to choose property on the north of the island.

West coast property has the beaches. It also has the sunset views and crystal clear waters. From Mai Khao in the north, to Kata Noi in the south, the west side of the island is in high demand and properties sell at premium prices (especially beachside villas and/or villas offering sea views). The west has also been proven to generate the best return on investment for those seeking an income.

The south, which incorporates Rawai and Nai Harn, also has some stunning beaches with turquoise clear waters. This area has always been home to the largest expatriate population. It attracts residents because of its more laid back atmosphere, incredible scenery, and some amazing restaurants and coffee shops. Although there is a rapidly diminishing supply of land in this area, Nai Harn and Rawai pool villas are extremely well priced.

The east coast is relatively undeveloped, and while it boasts the marinas and some other high-end developments, land is generally cheaper on this side of the island. Although many villas have stunning views over Phang Nga Bay, this area only really attracts buyers who wants to be away from the crowds, and may be looking for better value for money than is found on the west coast.

The central valley is very green, boasting some of Phuket’s best golf courses, as well as a few tourist attractions to cater for the tourists from Patong, which is only a short distance away over Patong Hill. Anyone looking for a golf villa in Phuket will likely find one in Kathu. Just as it does geographically, the Kathu Valley also falls in between the west and east coast in price.

Thalang and Cherng Talay municipalities have been expanding more than any other parts of the island. Easy access to beaches and to the airport, and with UWC and the opening of Headstart International School, the area has been attracting more and more buyers. Some of Phuket’s nicest luxury pool villas can be found in this area, but prices have risen faster here than in any other parts of the island.

Phuket Town has more housing developments targeting the Thai market, but it is also starting to receive more attention from foreign buyers, especially given its proximity to many facilities, including hospitals, Central Shopping Mall, an ever expanding choice of fancy restaurants, as well as a trendy nightlife. Despite that fact, prices have not yet reached the levels seen in other areas.

New vs. Old Phuket Properties?

Demand has increased significantly for property in Phuket over the last few years. Developers have tried to take advantage of this uplift in demand and there are now more new projects on the island than in any time during Phuket’s real estate history. The current trend tends to lean towards new villas and condos that have that new, modern and contemporary feel to them than the old styles which were more popular 10 years ago.

The age of any building in question, as well as excellent upkeep is, therefore, important. The numbers show that resales in Phuket are typically less attractive for buyers than new builds. Newly completed developments have that showroom appeal – they are clean, well maintained, and they are, after all, new.

The condition of the condominium or villa is important to any potential buyer, and older properties do have a certain element of wear and tear. Sellers often ignore this because they are used to seeing it every day, whereas a buyer is looking at every property with fresh eyes.

Sellers who are desperate to unload their property must consider all the factors that can lead to a successful sale. Phuket is a fledgling market, with more new properties being sold than older ones. The attractions of new property developments for buyers, including the prospect of guaranteed returns and full management services, as well as discounts when buying off-plan, make selling an older property more difficult.

It is not impossible, but if sellers do not respect this dynamic, and instead try to ask too high a price, they may have their property on the market for a while.

A Little Goes a Long Way – Paying Attention to Detail

Many sellers fail to maximise the selling potential of their Phuket villa or condo. Quite often, a property could be sold for substantially more if the seller were to spend a little money on some mostly cosmetic improvements. Buyers will not buy unless they feel a “connection” to the property they are viewing, and an otherwise marketable home may be selling itself short because the owner does not recognise the potential shortcomings, or is unwilling to address them.

There are also countless properties available for rental that could do much better with only a few small tweaks. In fact, the rental potential can be boosted significantly with only a modest outlay, and the prospect of higher rental income obviously increases the re-sale value of the property in question.

But it is not only renovations that make a difference. Simple changes to lighting, space conceptions and finishing touches can make the difference between a mediocre and superior rental property or home in Phuket.

While objectively fine enhancements are important, the appeal of any given Phuket property is ultimately subjective, and someone will only pay for that property what they think it is worth.

CALCULATING THE P/R RATIO ON A PHUKET INVESTMENT PROPERTY

A = Property Value: THB 27 million

B = Rental Income: THB 1.8 million per annum

The P/R Ratio is A ÷ B = 15

A P/R Ratio between 15 and 20 typically represents good value. A P/R higher than 20 should be considered inflated, while anything below 15 would represent a potentially excellent investment property.

The Home Price to Rental Income Ratio

Phuket Property Price Rent Ratio

There are many ways to establish the worth of a home, but comparing the potential rental income to the market price has historically been the preferred method of determining a property’s value.

In the same way a Price Earnings Ratio (P/E ratio), is used to value companies, the House Price to Rental Income Ratio (Price/Rent Ratio, or P/R Ratio) is used to value a property.

The P/R Ratio is calculated by dividing the sale price of a property by the yearly earnings that property would generate when rented out. A high P/R suggests an inflated home price relative to the rental income the owner could earn. A low P/R, by contrast, usually signifies a good investment opportunity.

Because the ratio also corresponds to the number of years it would take to recuperate the full initial expenditure through rental, the P/R is a simple guide to the investment potential of property. A P/R of 15 would mean the income generated from rental would pay back the purchase price of the property in 15 years.

If rental income is the primary motivation for purchasing a property in Phuket, it is important to identify one which will offer a favourable P/R ratio. But if the requested rent is too high, the property may remain empty for extended periods of time, reducing the income generated by the property.

That said, the low interest environment we’ve experienced over the last 15 years, as well as increased demand since Covid, has distorted traditional thinking, and some new buyers may be willing to accept lower yields than they did a few years ago. Ensuring a consistent income stream – even if the P/R is not optimal – is therefore seen as preferable to leaving the property empty.

Even if the rental market is a bit soft, which only occurs occasionally, an owner may be willing to accept lower rental yields now, in anticipation of strong capital appreciation when the property is sold.

Unless the rental market is booming, having a steady rental income is better than leaving the property empty in anticipation of higher rents. When it comes time to sell, any discerning buyer will want to see the rental income history, and the selling price that property ultimately commands may depend on the income it has been able to generate.

It is also worth noting that some cities or otherwise fashionable areas around the world have seen consistently high P/R ratios (as high as 50 or 60, in some cases) for a long period of time. This suggests that most people in these areas own property for habitation and potential capital appreciation, not for rental purposes. This doesn’t necessarily mean that rents in these areas are low, only that they are cheap relative to the cost of buying the property.

Although the Phuket real estate market is a very different market to the rest of Thailand, the broader Thai residential property sector currently has reasonable P/R ratios compared with many other countries.

With some of the new developments in Phuket, both condo and villa, offering rental services, and also offering to cover insurance, bills, hotel licenses, maintenance and upkeep, as well as management and the rental services, the effective P/R to be earned from these properties is actually higher. Taking these costs into consideration, a 5% net guaranteed return may equate to an effective gross return of 7% or more. In terms of P/R, a 7% return equates to a P/R ratio of approximately 14, which we know represents good value.

Please remember that any guarantees offered by new projects are for specific periods of time, so owners should anticipate more erratic rental income once the agreed contract term expires. Erratic is not necessarily bad – some years may see rental yields exceed what the developer offered as a guarantee – but income could also fall off while the owner gets to grips with joining a rental pool, or renting it out themselves.

That said, the current low interest environment has distorted traditional thinking, and new buyers are willing to accept lower yields than they did a few years ago. Ensuring a consistent income stream – even if the P/R is not optimal – is therefore seen as preferable to leaving the property empty.

Even if the rental market is a bit soft, an owner may be willing to accept lower rental yields now, in anticipation of strong capital appreciation when the property is sold. Unless the rental market is booming, having a steady rental income is better than leaving the property empty in anticipation of higher rents. When it comes time to sell, any discerning buyer will want to see the rental income history, and the selling price that property ultimately commands may depend on the income it has been able to generate.

Although Phuket is a different market to the rest of Thailand, the broader Thai residential property sector currently has reasonable P/R ratios compared with many other countries.

With some of the “guaranteed return” developments in Phuket also offering to cover insurance, bills, hotel licenses, maintenance and upkeep, as well as management and rental services, the effective P/R to be earned from these properties is actually higher. Taking these costs into consideration, a 5% net guaranteed return may equate to an effective gross return of 7% or more. In terms of P/R, a 7% return equates to a P/R ratio of approximately 14, which we know represents good value.

Please remember that most guarantees are for specific periods of time, so owners should anticipate more erratic rental income once the agreed contract term expires. Erratic is not necessarily bad – some years may see rental yields exceed what the developer offered as a guarantee – but income could also falloff while the owner gets to grips with joining a rental pool, or renting it out themselves.

Varying Material and Build Quality in Phuket Condos and Villas

A new or even a mature property may look beautiful, but the materials and workmanship underneath the plaster may be a mystery. Buyers should be inquisitive, and even do some of their own research into the materials used to build the foundations, walls and roof, as well as looking closely at the windows and indoor finishings.

A development which employs the best architectural talent can usually expect not only design quality, but build quality. Good architects are artists, and they do not want to put their name on something substandard. The materials they use, the fixtures, the furniture, the kitchen and all the finishing touches will demand a premium price.

Ask yourself the question: was this property built to a standard that will keep it in good shape for many years to come?

The Price per Square Metre of Phuket Condominiums

Everyone always wants the best deal possible, and in Asia this usually means finding as many square metres as possible for the desired price. The price per unit of space definitely makes a difference, and quite often this can drive the final decision. This is especially so with condos for sale in Phuket.

A buyer who goes in search of a new apartment or condo in Europe, Australia or North America does not necessarily pay the same attention to square footage (or metreage) as we do in Asia. It’s just not that important. You either like the unit, or you don’t. It either fits your needs, or it doesn’t. It’s either on par with surrounding properties, or it’s not.

In Phuket, however, this little dimension can have an out sized importance for potential condo investors. In most cases it is easy to determine why a THB 32,000/m2 property costs so much less than a THB 200,000/m2 property. But it is sometimes harder to ascertain why one condo is significantly more expensive than comparable condos in a similar area.

It stands to reason that high demand across the broader Phuket real estate sector will push prices higher, but there are other factors which need to be considered.

In Phuket, the developer of a new build will set the price per unit based not merely on the demand for those units, but also to achieve what they consider to be a satisfactory profit. Furthermore, developers who pride themselves on the use of high-end fixtures and finishings (especially fully equipped western kitchens) will typically demand a premium over those who do not.

Phuket Property Developer

Sometimes, however, the price/m2 may seem entirely random. That is when demand is driving the price. If new condo units are flying off the shelves, then the price/m2 may be perfectly valid. With a new build, developers have even been known to raise prices during the various stages of the initial offer period, in order to take advantage of this high demand and improve their margins.

At present, most condo developments seem to have no problem with sales, but some certainly sell faster than others. Ultimately, the properties will either sell for the asking price or they won’t. If the price is set too high to attract demand, the developer will have to accept a smaller profit.

Some condos are aimed at entry level investors, so land costs are obviously going to make a difference. The geography of Phuket Island means that you are never far from the sea, but the general rule of thumb is that the more inland you are, the lower the price per square metre, so you get more for your money. The differences are extremely noticeable.

While proximity to key attractions can be important, the major price differences will be between urban, rural, beach and sea view. Kathu (which attracts just as money locals as foreigners), has a lower price per square metre than Patong, which is just a few minutes drive over the hill, and has one of the higher averages, as does most of the west coast.

But there is not really one area that has just low prices, or another with only high prices, unless we isolate individual west coast hillside developments, with their stunning views and superior architecture. While condominium prices will vary, the average price on the west coast is around THB 100,000 m2, but beach and sea view will almost always be more expensive.

When calculating the average price per square metre of properties in a given area, scarcity and density must also be taken into consideration, otherwise any indicative price range can be misleading. Two similar condominium resorts may have 50 and 400 units for sale, respectively. The average weighting will obviously be skewed towards the development with the higher number of units, meaning there is no reliably accurate way to determine an “average” price per square metre for any given area.

Furthermore, the data for some condominium projects may not be included in the figures, or it may be falsely represented. There are areas which are mostly undeveloped, but may have one or two high end condo resorts, thus giving the impression on paper that the area is far more expensive than elsewhere in Phuket. Yet land prices in that area may be significantly cheaper than in other parts of the island, which will ultimately fuel further development of better-value condominiums or villas.

We have seen the latter dynamic frequently, whereby a high price/m2 is being demanded in areas where the land has traditionally been cheaper, such as the East Coast. The “island mentality” suggests that a finite quantity of land justifies these higher prices, but there is still a fair amount land left for development. Land in high-demand areas is becoming increasingly difficult to find, but this does not necessarily justify “high-demand” prices in other areas of the island.

Buyers or investors in Phuket pool villas should also establish whether the price per square metre is for the built area, usable area or internal living area. Developers will always give the land plot size, but there can be some confusion in the numbers they release for the usable area. It can, therefore, be somewhat more difficult to ascertain the square metres on a villa than sizing up a condo. For example, does it include patios, veranda, gazebos, terraces and balconies, or even car park spaces, garages or car ports? A large patio area could considerably lower the price per square metre but may not actually add to “living area”

Summary

The price of property in Phuket is higher than in other provinces of Thailand, and in some cases it may be comparable to prices in Bangkok. Compared to other holiday destinations around the world, however, both condominiums and private pool villas are remarkably good value for money on a cost per square metre basis.

Square metre prices tell us whether the property we are looking at is on the low or high end of properties in a given area, but they are not the only measuring stick. Discerning buyers can use this as a starting point, but it is only one factor to consider when determining whether a property is a sound investment.

Phuket Real Estate Price

If you haven’t already done so, you may also want to read our informative article on the factors affecting Phuket property prices:

An Overview on Phuket Property Prices

ALWAYS HIGH DEMAND FOR PHUKET RENTAL CONDOS AND VILLAS

Although the post-Covid era has changed the Phuket real estate landscape, with a huge increase in the amount of foreign resident’s moving to the island, there is still a large proportion of new buyers seeking investment opportunities.

The potential for long-term capital gains has historically driven most global property markets. While this is most certainly a reasonable expectation in Phuket, the market is also driven by investors, demanding a better return on their money by investing in Phuket property and, perhaps, even diversification over asset classes and currencies in their portfolios.

Returns in Phuket, taken as an average, equate to around 6-7% net per annum. We do see occasional good years beating this average, however, we also see years that underachieve.

If a property to is to ever achieve a much higher return, we have even known one to achieve a net return of 15% each year, it is likely to be a villa, as villa demand in the high season between November and April is through the roof, and it is rare for a villa not to be rented out over this entire period.

Both villa and condominium projects may be marketed as income producing, but condominiums, being more affordable, make up the bulk of individual sales in Phuket. Villas may make up less sales, but have a higher total monetary value of sales, due to their much higher price value.

There are also “condotels,” which enjoy both condominium and hotel licenses. They have professional management like other condos, but the extra hotel license allows the properties to be rented out on a short-term basis (i.e. for periods shorter than 30 days).

Sam Fauma and his colleagues at the International Law Office in Phuket have some advice on short-term and long-term rentals.

What Sam Says About Short-Term vs. Long-Term Rentals

The Hotel Act of Thailand (2004) clearly states that a hotel is “an accommodation established for business purposes of providing temporary accommodation service for travelers or any other person in exchange for compensation.” However, the Act specifically excludes from that definition “an accommodation established for the purpose of providing accommodation service for monthly paid service charge or upward only.”

In other words, any business providing temporary accommodation for a period shorter than 30 days is considered to be operating as a hotel, and falls under this act. Anyone owning a villa or a condo in Phuket may not realise it, but if they are renting through an agent or an internet service (e.g. booking.com or airbnb.com) they, too, may find themselves defined as a hotel, and thus be required to have a hotel license in order to offer short-term rental.

Thankfully, in 2008, there were Ministerial Regulations issued for an exemption from this Act, as follows: “Any dwelling place which has a number of rooms not more than four rooms, whether in a single building or in several buildings, and with a total service capacity of not more than 20 guests, operating as a business which provides an additional source of income for the owners.” So if you own a Phuket condo, or multiple condos, with no more than four bedrooms, sleeping no more than 20 people, you may apply to exempt your properties, and carry on with legal short-term rentals. As the owner of such premises, however, you are also required to report to the Hotel Registrar.

The popularity of Airbnb (especially) has highlighted the number of rentals which are technically illegal, but they do not have to be. It is surprising how few people make the effort to ensure that they are in compliance with Thai law when they rent their Phuket property.

Are the Guaranteed Returns on Investment (ROI) Really Guaranteed?

Clint Eastwood once said, “If you want a guarantee, buy a toaster.” So what would Dirty Harry make of the guarantees being offered by Phuket condominium developers? Are the returns really 100% guaranteed?

This question does not have a straightforward answer, and without trying to be funny, the best answer really is yes…and no.

First and foremost, the guaranteed return contract must be reviewed by a lawyer to ensure it represents the buyer’s interests. If it is poorly constructed, part of the return could be going to the developer for common area maintenance, while the buyer is left to pay for their own maintenance and management fees. Because these fees are typically absorbed by the developer, this underlines the importance of securing the right lawyer.

Once the wording of the contract is ensured, in our experience, short-term guarantees are realistic because developers usually budget for this expense. In most cases, it will already be built into the sales and marketing costs of each condo unit. In fact, some developers actually prepay the rental returns as a lump sum as soon as the final payment on the condo is received.

The viability of longer-term rental guarantees, however, will be down to the overall health of the tourism industry in Phuket. Any major contraction in tourist figures would almost certainly trigger a contraction of the local economy. A prolonged contraction would have a knock-on effect on Phuket’s property market, as guaranteed returns are based on filling available units with tourists every year.

The number of tourists visiting Phuket has been steadily increasing over the last twenty years. During this time there have been events which negatively impacted tourism (see Black Swans of Tourism in this guide), but after each falloff, the number of tourists continued to reach new highs.

But how bad were the bad years? There was the Asia Crisis, the bursting of the tech bubble, bird flu, SARS, the global financial crisis, military coups and a tsunami in the middle of peak season. These events had a marked effect on tourism at the time each occurred, but both Phuket bounced back with renewed vigour each time.

In terms of rental guarantees, the only thing likely to derail most ROI agreements (aside from poor management or bankruptcy) would be a ruinous contraction in the tourist economy. If a buyer is motivated by the promise of guaranteed rental returns on their Phuket condo purchase, they should have a lawyer carefully review any agreement drawn up by the developer or management company, especially if they are buying multiple condo units at a single development.

The necessary due diligence must find out as much as possible about the:

credit worthiness of the developer
track record of the management company
terms of their own occupancy, and
consequences should they decide to sell the unit during the guaranteed period (to make sure there are no penalties for doing so).

It is also worth asking what happens when the terms or promises made by the developer and/or management company are not met in full. If the conditions are not met, what other forms of compensation exist?

These checks may be moot if the development prepays the rental returns, which would negate any risks involved with the guaranteed rental return contract.

Phuket Property ROI

One of the latest marketing strategies by developers, especially on leasehold units, is to offer buyers a guaranteed buy-back program. This is effectively promising to buy back the condo unit or villa at full price, or even at a profit, after 5, 10 or 15 years. Here is our article on the subject:

What Is a Developer Guaranteed Buy-Back Option When You Buy a Phuket Condominium or Villa?

In Summary

Phuket’s immense appeal to holiday makers and long term residents keeps on growing, moving hand in hand with Phuket’s property market. The incredibly high demand for rental villas and condos in the high season is testament to this. Discerning buyers may look to capitalise on short term rental returns for holiday makers through an exemption. Or they may focus on the long term rental market, also in high demand from the huge influx of expatriates moving to the island over the last few years.

Phuket Real Estate Market Articles

Factors Affecting Real Estate Prices in Phuket

It is almost a misnomer to refer to “The Phuket Property Market” because it is not a homogeneous entity. It is divided (and even subdivided) into categories which collectively include a diverse array of buyers.